Disinformation Campaign Distorts Polish Public Opinion on Drone Incursion
A recent incident involving drones entering Polish airspace has become a breeding ground for disinformation, with pro-Russian narratives falsely portraying Polish public opinion as blaming Ukraine for the incursion. A report by Res Futura, a Polish NGO specializing in information security, analyzed approximately 179,000 social media posts and comments following the September incident. Their findings revealed that 38% of these comments attributed blame to Ukraine, while 34% blamed Russia. Crucially, Res Futura identified this disparity as the result of a coordinated disinformation campaign orchestrated by pro-Russian accounts, not a reflection of genuine public sentiment.
The disinformation campaign, according to Res Futura, employed tactics consistent with pro-Russian disinformation operations, exhibiting a “coherent pattern” indicative of a deliberate information-psychological operation. The goal of this campaign was to sow discord and distrust within Poland towards both its own government and the NATO alliance. The narrative pushed by these accounts conveniently shifted blame away from Russia, attempting to erode public confidence in established institutions and alliances.
A key element of this disinformation campaign involved the misrepresentation of Res Futura’s report itself. The report included a bar graph illustrating the percentage of sampled social media comments assigning responsibility for the drone incursion. This graph, clearly demonstrating the prevalence of the Ukraine-blaming narrative within the online sphere, was subsequently hijacked by disinformation actors. They falsely presented the graph as the result of a public opinion poll, creating the misleading impression that a majority of Poles held Ukraine responsible.
This manipulated narrative quickly spread across multiple social media platforms, including Facebook, Telegram, Instagram, and X (formerly Twitter), reaching millions of users in various languages, including Arabic, English, French, Hungarian, Polish, and Spanish. The disinformation campaign even infiltrated some media outlets, which published misleading headlines echoing the false claim that a significant portion of the Polish population blamed Ukraine. This amplification of the false narrative further blurred the lines between online disinformation and public perception.
Euronews’ fact-checking team, EuroVerify, exposed these unfounded claims, emphasizing that the Res Futura report did not represent public opinion but rather highlighted the prevalence of a specific disinformation narrative. Res Futura’s analysis underscored that this narrative was part of a larger disinformation effort launched in the immediate aftermath of the drone incursion. This campaign exploited the initial confusion and lack of definitive information to promote its misleading narrative, capitalizing on the absence of a “dominant, credible” narrative from the Polish government.
The incident itself involved approximately 20 drones entering Polish airspace on the night of September 9th, prompting a response from both Polish and NATO aircraft. While investigations into the incident continue, Western officials remain uncertain whether the incursion was a deliberate provocation by Moscow or an unintentional incident. This ambiguity has provided fertile ground for disinformation actors to exploit, further muddying the waters and promoting conspiracy theories. The incident underscored the vulnerability of the information landscape to manipulation and the importance of critical evaluation of information, particularly in times of heightened tension and uncertainty. The incident highlights the increasing sophistication of disinformation campaigns and the challenges they pose to accurate reporting and public understanding. It serves as a stark reminder of the need for media literacy and the crucial role of fact-checking organizations in combating the spread of misinformation.