Germany Grapples with Russian Disinformation Campaigns Ahead of State Elections
The upcoming state elections in Germany are once again being overshadowed by the specter of Russian disinformation campaigns, a recurring theme in Western democracies in recent years. From the 2021 German federal elections to the 2022 US midterms and EU parliamentary elections, Russia has consistently sought to manipulate public opinion through the dissemination of fabricated narratives and distorted information. Now, with crucial state elections on the horizon, experts warn of a renewed and intensified effort to sow discord and influence the outcome. The primary targets of these campaigns appear to be centrist parties, with the Greens, Christian Democrats (CDU), and Social Democrats (SPD) facing the brunt of the disinformation onslaught.
The disinformation campaign manifests itself through various tactics, including the creation and dissemination of manipulated videos and fabricated documents. One recent example involves a video falsely alleging a mental health crisis and suicide attempt by CDU top candidate Friedrich Merz. The video, which has been viewed millions of times, attempts to link Merz’s supposed instability to his stance on supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine, a contentious issue in German politics. Similarly, fabricated allegations of corruption have targeted Green Party leaders Robert Habeck and Claudia Roth, involving a fictitious art scandal and millions of euros. These examples highlight the sophistication and reach of the disinformation campaign, exploiting sensitive political issues to undermine public trust in established parties and their candidates.
These disinformation operations often follow a distinct pattern, employing similar methods of fabrication and dissemination. They typically involve fabricated witness statements, forged documents, and pseudo-news websites designed to mimic legitimate media outlets. One identified operation, known as “Storm-1516,” utilizes AI-generated pro-Russian content as a foundation for disseminating false reports. These reports are then amplified through social media platforms like X and Telegram by networks of "friends" or paid influencers. Another operation, “Doppelgänger,” focuses on mimicking established media outlets to lend an air of credibility to its disinformation. By cloning the websites and video formats of organizations like the BBC and DW, the Doppelgänger operation seeks to disseminate pro-Russian narratives and discredit Western support for Ukraine.
Further complicating the fight against disinformation is the “Matryoshka” operation, which employs bot networks to flood journalists and fact-checkers with requests to verify fabricated stories. This tactic serves to both spread the disinformation more widely and to overwhelm the resources of those attempting to debunk it. This coordinated effort to manipulate the information landscape underscores the seriousness of the threat posed by these disinformation campaigns. The sheer volume of fabricated content, coupled with its targeted dissemination, creates a challenging environment for voters attempting to discern fact from fiction.
While the direct impact of these disinformation campaigns on election outcomes remains difficult to quantify, experts point to several concerning trends. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) appears to benefit from the disinformation, with reports suggesting a concerted effort to boost the party’s electoral prospects. The AfD’s pro-Russia stance, including calls to lift sanctions and a downplaying of the war in Ukraine, aligns with the narratives promoted by the disinformation campaigns. Similarly, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which has also expressed pro-Russia views, has seen its visibility amplified by Russian propaganda efforts. This raises concerns about the potential for foreign interference to bolster extremist political movements and undermine democratic processes.
Addressing this multifaceted threat requires a multi-pronged approach. While legal avenues for prosecuting foreign disinformation campaigns are limited, German authorities are focusing on raising public awareness and promoting media literacy. Efforts are underway to educate citizens on how to identify and critically evaluate online information, and to understand the tactics employed by disinformation actors. Cooperation with other states and social media platforms is also crucial for combating the spread of these campaigns. However, experts also emphasize the need to address the underlying societal factors that make individuals susceptible to disinformation. This includes acknowledging legitimate public concerns and addressing the emotional needs of the population, as well as implementing effective policies that address the root causes of societal discontent. Only by combining fact-checking efforts with a deeper understanding of the social and psychological dynamics at play can the threat of disinformation be effectively countered.