The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has released a comprehensive report titled “Radioactive Measures: Hybrid Threats and Nuclear Risks in Europe and Beyond,” which serves as a sobering analysis of how the intersection of conventional geopolitical aggression and nuclear brinkmanship has fundamentally altered global security. The study argues that the era of viewing nuclear weapons merely as existential deterrents has ended, replaced by a strategic environment where nuclear signaling, coercive diplomacy, and hybrid warfare are increasingly blurred. As the war in Ukraine persists, the report highlights that the shadow of nuclear escalation is no longer a theoretical abstraction but a tactical feature of modern conflict, designed to paralyze Western decision-making and fragment regional alliances.
Central to the IISS findings is the conceptual shift in how Russia and other revisionist powers leverage “nuclear noise” to achieve non-nuclear objectives. By utilizing aggressive rhetoric and unpredictable mobilization drills, these actors create a pervasive sense of instability, or “strategic anxiety,” that forces NATO and its allies to tread cautiously. The report underscores that this is a deliberate hybrid strategy; by keeping the threshold for nuclear use perpetually ambiguous, aggressors can conduct peripheral hybrid operations—such as cyberattacks, infrastructure sabotage, and information warfare—while shielded by the “nuclear umbrella” of their own design. The IISS warns that this creates a dangerous precedent where conventional aggression is validated by the threat of nuclear escalation.
The report also provides a harrowing assessment of the vulnerability of nuclear infrastructure in an age of hybrid conflict. Beyond the direct threat of warhead use, the study identifies civilian nuclear power plants as high-value targets for unconventional warfare. Whether through direct military seizure, as seen at the Zaporizhzhia plant in Ukraine, or through sophisticated cyber-sabotage, the physical integrity of nuclear sites has become a central point of leverage. The IISS warns that these facilities are increasingly being treated as “strategic hostages,” where the risk of a radiological incident is used to extract concessions, effectively weaponizing the fear of catastrophe to restrict the movement of opposing military forces.
Addressing the erosion of global arms control regimes, the IISS expresses deep concern over the collapse of formal communication channels that historically acted as buffers during periods of high tension. The report notes that the modernization of nuclear arsenals, coupled with the introduction of emerging technologies like hypersonic glide vehicles and AI-integrated command systems, has drastically compressed decision-making timelines. This “speed-up” of the nuclear lifecycle reduces the room for diplomatic error and increases the likelihood of accidental escalation. As treaties expire and transparency measures vanish, the international community finds itself operating in a “post-Cold War wild west” where miscalculation remains the most significant risk to global stability.
The IISS emphasizes that the burden of managing this new risk landscape falls heavily on trans-Atlantic partners. The research calls for a dual-track strategy: bolstering conventional readiness to ensure hybrid threats do not devolve into territorial losses, while simultaneously re-establishing institutionalized crisis-management protocols. The authors argue that NATO’s “deterrence by denial” must evolve to account for the grey-zone tactics that precede kinetic conflict. By strengthening the resilience of critical infrastructure and investing in non-nuclear cyber-defenses, the report suggests that Europe can lower the efficacy of nuclear coercion and demonstrate that conventional provocations will not lead to strategic paralysis.
In its concluding outlook, the IISS report serves as a profound call to action for international policymakers to decouple conventional security from the psychological paralysis of nuclear threat perceptions. It posits that the international order is undergoing a structural transformation where nuclear weapons are being re-integrated into every level of statecraft, from economic warfare to regional border disputes. To prevent this “normalization” of nuclear risk from crossing the threshold into physical usage, the international community must prioritize the re-establishment of multilateral norms. Without a concerted effort to stabilize the strategic environment, the report warns, the risk of a miscalculated encounter in the European theatre could pose the greatest threat to global civilization since the height of the Cold War.