Disinformation Campaign Exploits Duterte’s Arrest to Sow Discord in Mindanao’s Peace Process
The arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for alleged crimes against humanity related to his controversial "drug war" has sparked a wave of disinformation across social media. These false narratives, often portraying Duterte as a victim of injustice, are not only twisting the legal facts of the case but also threatening to destabilize the fragile peace in Mindanao, a region with a long history of conflict and separatist movements. The disinformation campaign, employing manipulated videos and fabricated quotes, seeks to exploit existing tensions and undermine decades of peacebuilding efforts by portraying the arrest as an attack on Mindanao and its people.
One particularly dangerous narrative falsely claims that former separatist groups, the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), are mobilizing to violently oppose Duterte’s arrest. These claims are accompanied by misrepresented videos of unrest in Indonesia, falsely labeled as events unfolding in Mindanao, to stoke fears of impending armed conflict. The spread of these fabricated videos, often through entertainment-focused Facebook pages, is a clear indication of a coordinated effort to manipulate public perception and incite unrest. The MNLF has categorically denied these allegations, emphasizing their commitment to the ongoing peace process.
The timing of this disinformation campaign is particularly concerning, coinciding with a recent leadership change in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), the interim government established as part of the peace agreement with the MILF. The replacement of MILF chairman Ahod Ebrahim as BARMM’s chief minister by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has created a sensitive political climate, which malicious actors are attempting to exploit. By falsely linking Duterte’s arrest to the BARMM leadership change, the disinformation campaign aims to fuel resentment and distrust towards the government, potentially jeopardizing the fragile peace process.
The Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism (PCIJ) has tracked at least 13 accounts sharing a video of armed individuals in Indonesia, falsely claiming it depicts MNLF or MILF troops gathering after Duterte’s arrest. The video, originally geo-tagged to Indonesia’s Papua region, was disseminated across TikTok, Facebook, and YouTube, with some posts amassing hundreds of thousands of views. Another video, also from Indonesia, showing a shootout, was similarly misrepresented to suggest armed conflict in the Philippines. These fabricated posts, often originating from accounts with thousands of followers, highlight the reach and potential impact of the disinformation campaign.
Further fueling the false narrative, a coordinated network of social media accounts fabricated a quote attributed to MNLF founding chairman Nur Misuari, claiming the group was "ready" to respond to Duterte’s arrest. While the MNLF swiftly debunked this fabrication, the image continued to circulate on TikTok, reaching tens of thousands of viewers. The phrase “ready” was deceptively taken out of context from an older statement by an MNLF leader expressing willingness to provide security for Vice President Sara Duterte, the former president’s daughter, after her security detail was reduced. This manipulation of existing statements underscores the deceptive tactics employed by the disinformation campaign.
The implications of this disinformation campaign are far-reaching, potentially undermining years of painstaking peace negotiations and eroding public trust in the hard-won peace agreements. Yasmira Moner, a political science professor at Mindanao State University – Iligan Institute of Technology, warns that the ease with which people believe these false narratives threatens to unravel the delicate peace process. She emphasizes that "perception is powerful because in politics, it is the reality," highlighting the potential for these constructed realities to incite violence and be exploited by those seeking to disrupt the peace. Moner believes that the disinformation campaign aims to create an "entry point for recruitment" by exploiting the emotional response to Duterte’s arrest, turning it into a rallying cry for violence. She calls for a stronger national pushback against these false narratives, emphasizing the need for a broader coalition of disinformation busters to counter the spread of misinformation and protect the peace in Mindanao. The fact that Duterte maintains good relations with Misuari and oversaw the passage of the Bangsamoro Organic Law, which established the BARMM, adds another layer of complexity to the situation and underscores the potential for manipulation. While thousands of combatants are yet to be decommissioned, the focus should remain on supporting the peace process and countering the divisive narratives that threaten its progress. The MILF, despite internal frustrations over the leadership changes, has reaffirmed its commitment to the peace process, further underscoring the importance of separating genuine concerns from the manipulated narratives being circulated online. The fight against disinformation is crucial to safeguarding the peace and stability of Mindanao.