Kyiv Anticipates Massive Disinformation Campaign During Russian-Belarusian ‘Zapad-2025’ Military Exercises
Kyiv, Ukraine – Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov has warned of an impending large-scale disinformation campaign coinciding with the “Zapad-2025” joint Russian-Belarusian military exercises scheduled to commence on September 12th. Speaking at the international forum “Information War: From Resistance to Resilience,” Budanov predicted a surge in disinformation originating primarily from Russia, but also including other sources. This information offensive, he cautioned, will aim to escalate tensions and spread misleading narratives across multiple platforms. The exercises themselves, focused on maneuvers along the western axis of the potential theater of war, are viewed by Ukraine as a message directed primarily at European nations, particularly the Baltic states.
Budanov emphasized the strategic significance of the information warfare component of the Zapad-2025 exercises. He asserted that the Baltic states will be the primary target of this disinformation campaign, facing a barrage of fabricated stories and provocative actions designed to sow discord and destabilize the region. This information offensive, he warned, will be tightly coordinated with the military maneuvers, amplifying their psychological impact and creating an atmosphere of anxiety and uncertainty. The Ukrainian intelligence assessment suggests that this disinformation blitz is not solely aimed at Ukraine, but rather serves as a broader demonstration of Russia’s capacity for information manipulation and hybrid warfare tactics.
The Zapad-2025 exercises, involving over 13,000 military personnel, will take place in Belarus from September 12th to 16th. While ostensibly a routine training exercise, Kyiv views the exercises as a thinly veiled threat directed at NATO’s eastern flank and a potential prelude to further aggressive actions. Budanov stressed that the exercises rehearse elements of a potential future conflict, sending a clear message to European nations, particularly those bordering Belarus, about Russia’s military capabilities and ambitions. The exercises’ focus on the western theater adds to the concerns, suggesting a potential shift in Russia’s strategic focus.
Ukrainian intelligence has been closely monitoring preparations for Zapad-2025, analyzing both the military deployments and the accompanying information warfare preparations. Budanov warned that the disinformation campaign will likely employ a wide range of tactics, including fabricated news reports, social media manipulation, and cyberattacks. The aim, he explained, is to undermine public trust in government institutions, create divisions within societies, and erode support for NATO. The Ukrainian government has called on its allies to remain vigilant and to actively counter the anticipated disinformation campaign.
The warning from Kyiv comes amid heightened tensions between Russia and the West following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Zapad-2025 exercises are seen as a further escalation of these tensions, demonstrating Russia’s willingness to use military exercises as a tool of intimidation and coercion. The focus on the western theater and the anticipated information warfare campaign underscore the Kremlin’s efforts to project power and influence in the region. NATO has expressed concern about the exercises, calling on Russia and Belarus to conduct them in a transparent and predictable manner.
The Ukrainian government is urging the international community to take the threat of Russian disinformation seriously and to work together to counter its harmful effects. Budanov’s warning serves as a reminder of the increasing importance of information warfare in modern conflicts. The ability to distinguish between accurate information and disinformation is crucial for maintaining stability and security in the face of growing geopolitical challenges. The Zapad-2025 exercises, and the accompanying disinformation campaign, represent a significant test of the resilience of democratic societies and their ability to withstand information manipulation.