Kenya’s 2027 Election: The Looming Threat of AI-Powered Disinformation
Kenya is bracing itself for a pivotal general election in 2027, but the political landscape is increasingly being shaped by a new and potentially disruptive force: artificial intelligence (AI). Two recent viral videos, featuring fabricated confessions from high-ranking government officials, have exposed the growing threat of AI-generated disinformation and its potential to manipulate public opinion. The videos, depicting Interior Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen and Communications Authority Director General David Mugonyi making damaging admissions, were quickly debunked as deepfakes, highlighting the ease with which AI can be weaponized to spread falsehoods and sow discord. This incident serves as a stark warning of the challenges Kenya faces as it navigates the intersection of technology and democracy.
The emergence of these deepfakes underscores a broader trend of misinformation and disinformation campaigns aimed at influencing the 2027 elections. These tactics, employing cheap fakes, deepfakes, and other forms of manipulated media, exploit the vulnerabilities of citizens in the digital age, leaving them misinformed and potentially susceptible to manipulation. The ease and affordability of creating such content amplify the risk, making it a readily available tool for malicious actors seeking to destabilize the political process. The potential consequences are far-reaching, threatening not only the integrity of the elections but also the very foundations of democratic governance.
National security agencies have recognized the seriousness of this threat. The National Intelligence Service (NIS) Director-General, Noordin Haji, issued a stern warning in March, highlighting the weaponization of social media and AI by both domestic and foreign actors. Haji identified disinformation and misinformation as significant threats to national security, urging for immediate action to counter their spread. He explicitly linked the dissemination of false information to the June 2024 Gen Z protests, suggesting how manipulated narratives can be used to exacerbate social unrest and undermine the government.
The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is also grappling with the implications of AI for the 2027 elections. Recognizing the transformative potential of AI, digital platforms, and social media, the IEBC participated in a regional conference earlier this year, focusing on the impact of these technologies on elections in Kenya and across Africa. IEBC CEO Marjan Hussein Marjan acknowledged the profound influence of these innovations, emphasizing the need for Africa to develop the necessary capabilities, tools, and regulatory frameworks to harness AI’s potential while mitigating its risks. The goal is to ensure that AI serves the interests of democracy and not becomes a tool for its subversion.
Experts warn that the rise of generative AI represents a turning point in the fight against disinformation and hate speech. Hlengiwe Dube, a human rights advocate, argues that generative AI has the potential to undermine truth and safety, fueling manipulation, and exacerbating social divisions. The ability of AI to analyze public sentiment and discourse on social media adds another layer of complexity, allowing stakeholders to gauge public mood and anticipate potential unrest, which can be both a valuable tool for maintaining stability and a potential instrument for manipulation.
Despite the inherent risks, AI also presents opportunities to enhance the integrity of elections. Information technology experts believe that if used responsibly, AI can play a crucial role in monitoring elections in real time, detecting irregularities such as voter intimidation or fraud. AI algorithms can analyze vast datasets, including voting patterns and registration processes, to identify anomalies that might indicate manipulation. Samuel Owida, a governance and political observer, explains that AI can analyze live feeds from polling stations, enabling the near-instant detection of irregularities. This real-time monitoring capability offers a powerful tool for ensuring transparent and credible elections. The challenge for Kenya, and indeed for democracies worldwide, lies in finding the right balance between leveraging AI’s potential and safeguarding against its misuse.