Poland Grapples with Disinformation Campaign Targeting Ukrainian Refugees Ahead of Presidential Runoff
The upcoming presidential runoff election in Poland has become a breeding ground for disinformation targeting Ukrainian refugees, with Russia-aligned actors intensifying their efforts to manipulate public opinion and sow discord, according to a recent investigation by the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD). The report reveals a coordinated campaign across social media platforms, including X (formerly Twitter), Bluesky, Facebook, and Telegram, designed to amplify anti-Ukrainian sentiment and influence the electoral outcome.
These disinformation campaigns employ a range of tactics, including impersonation, the use of AI-generated content, and coordinated amplification to spread false narratives. One such operation, dubbed "Operation Overload," disseminated a fabricated claim that Ukrainian refugees were planning terrorist attacks targeting the Polish elections. This particular piece of disinformation garnered over 654,000 views and nearly 5,800 interactions on X, demonstrating the potential reach and impact of these campaigns. Another false narrative accused Ukrainians of plotting attacks on politicians in neighboring countries, further fueling anxieties and mistrust.
The ISD investigation also highlighted the problematic role of AI chatbots in replicating and disseminating misleading information. The report found that ChatGPT, a widely used language model, reproduced false claims originating from the pro-Kremlin network "Pravda/Portal Kombat," including accusations that Ukrainians were responsible for a surge in violent crime in Poland. This underscores the potential for AI-generated content to be weaponized in disinformation campaigns, amplifying existing narratives and potentially reaching a wider audience.
Adding fuel to the fire, a satirical video about refugees was manipulated by a pro-Kremlin influencer and recontextualized to portray Ukrainians as exploiting Poland’s welfare system. This manipulated content ignited a wave of online hate and calls for deportations, illustrating the ease with which disinformation can be manipulated and weaponized to incite xenophobia and discrimination. The influencer’s post alone garnered significant engagement, receiving 161,500 views, 900 shares, and 380 comments, many of which were derogatory and inflammatory.
The weaponization of the refugee issue has injected a toxic element into the Polish political landscape, with both presidential candidates adopting stances targeting Ukrainian refugees. Rafal Trzaskowski, representing the ruling Civic Platform (PO), has proposed halting child benefits for non-working refugees, while Karol Nawrocki, backed by the Law and Justice party (PiS), suggested placing them last in line for public services. Both positions reflect a growing politicization of the refugee issue and demonstrate how disinformation campaigns can influence political discourse, potentially leading to discriminatory policies and social divisions.
The ISD has issued a stark warning about the potential consequences of these disinformation campaigns, emphasizing the need for vigilance from Polish authorities and social media platforms. The report urges authorities to proactively counter Russia-backed disinformation that fuels discrimination and societal division, while calling on platforms to fulfill their obligations under the EU’s Digital Services Act. Specifically, the ISD recommends clearly labeling AI-generated content and addressing systemic risks to electoral integrity. Furthermore, the European Commission is urged to expand the enforcement of sanctions on Russian-linked aggregators and collaborate with internet service providers to effectively combat foreign information manipulation. The stakes are high, and the future of Poland’s political landscape hangs in the balance as the country navigates this complex and potentially destabilizing disinformation landscape.