Global Pandemic Preparedness: Five Years After COVID-19, Are We Ready for the Next Threat?
Five years after the devastating emergence of COVID-19, the world grapples with a critical question: are we truly prepared for the next pandemic? The World Health Organization (WHO), central to the global pandemic response, has spearheaded efforts to identify future threats and bolster global preparedness. While acknowledging progress, the WHO cautions that significant vulnerabilities remain.
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus offers a nuanced assessment, stating, "Yes and no," when asked about the world’s readiness. He acknowledges improvements but warns that many weaknesses persist. Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO’s epidemic and pandemic preparedness and prevention director, emphasizes the inevitability of future pandemics, asserting that while advancements have been made since the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and COVID-19, global readiness remains inadequate.
Expert opinions underscore the ongoing challenges. The Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, established by the WHO, bluntly states that the world is not ready for another pandemic threat by 2025, citing persistent inequalities in access to funding and essential tools like vaccines. Virologist Marion Koopmans highlights the groundbreaking success of mRNA vaccines but cautions that vaccine hesitancy and rampant disinformation pose serious obstacles to their effective deployment in a future pandemic. Meg Schaeffer, a disease epidemiologist, suggests that public health agencies require several years to upgrade their systems for faster information detection and sharing, expressing skepticism about current preparedness levels, though acknowledging societal awareness of protective measures like distancing, masking, and travel restrictions.
Despite the challenges, significant strides have been made in pandemic preparedness. The WHO Hub for Pandemic and Epidemic Intelligence in Berlin focuses on collaborative surveillance to enhance threat detection and mitigation. The World Bank’s Pandemic Fund has allocated substantial grants to support projects in numerous countries, aiming to strengthen health systems and pandemic response capabilities. An mRNA technology transfer hub in South Africa and a Global Training Hub for Bio-manufacturing in South Korea aim to boost local vaccine production and improve global response capacity.
Addressing the delayed global response to COVID-19, the WHO has introduced a new "pandemic emergency" alarm level, requiring swift and coordinated action from member states. This new level aims to avoid the lag observed between the initial declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern and the eventual recognition of the pandemic.
Efforts to establish a legally binding pandemic treaty are underway, aiming to enhance prevention, preparedness, and response. While negotiations have progressed, key sticking points remain, including the sharing of emerging pathogens and the equitable distribution of pandemic-fighting resources. These negotiations underscore the tension between developed nations with robust pharmaceutical industries and developing countries wary of inequitable access.
Scientists are actively working to identify potential pandemic threats. Tom Peacock, a virologist, emphasizes the serious threat posed by H5N1 bird flu. The WHO has commissioned a comprehensive evaluation of over 1,600 pathogens, identifying priority pathogens including those responsible for COVID-19, Ebola, Marburg, Lassa fever, MERS, SARS, and Zika, as well as "Disease X," a placeholder for an unknown pathogen. These efforts aim to develop broad knowledge, tools, and countermeasures adaptable to future threats.
The ongoing efforts highlight the complex and multifaceted nature of pandemic preparedness. While significant advancements have been made in surveillance, resource allocation, and technology development, challenges related to vaccine hesitancy, equitable access, and international cooperation persist. The development of a pandemic treaty remains a crucial step towards establishing a robust global framework for future pandemic response. Continued investment in research, surveillance, and capacity building is essential to effectively mitigate the risks posed by emerging infectious diseases and protect global health security. The lessons learned from COVID-19, coupled with ongoing scientific advancements and international collaboration, offer hope for a more prepared and resilient future.