President Tinubu’s Economic Claims Spark Debate Amidst Nigeria’s Economic Realities
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu recently addressed the Buhari Organisation, a group of politicians affiliated with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), offering an optimistic portrayal of Nigeria’s economic performance. The President declared that Nigeria had achieved its 2025 revenue targets ahead of schedule, eliminating the need for further borrowing. He asserted that the exchange rate had stabilized, hovering around N1,450 to the dollar, a significant improvement from the N1,900 rate he claimed to have inherited upon assuming office. Furthermore, he dismissed concerns about the impact of US trade policies, emphasizing the strength of Nigeria’s non-oil revenue streams. Tinubu also outlined his administration’s commitment to food security and poverty reduction through the establishment of mechanized farm centers across the country.
However, these pronouncements have been met with skepticism and counterarguments, with critics pointing to starkly different economic realities. Available data contradicts the President’s claims on several fronts. Firstly, the exchange rate was not at N1,900 per dollar when President Tinubu took office in May 2023. Official rates fluctuated between N450-N470, while the parallel market rate was around N700. It was the policy changes implemented by the Tinubu administration, including fuel subsidy removal and naira floatation, that led to a sharp devaluation of the naira, pushing it close to N2,000 per dollar by early 2024. While the naira has appreciated since then, it has not reached the N1,450 mark claimed by the President. Central Bank of Nigeria data indicates an exchange rate of N1,532 per dollar as of August 29, 2025, closer to N1,500 even in mid-September.
Furthermore, the President’s assertion that Nigeria has ceased borrowing is also disputed. The Senate recently approved an external borrowing plan exceeding $21 billion for the 2025-2026 fiscal year, along with substantial domestic borrowing through government bonds. This borrowing plan aims to fund the N55 trillion 2025 budget and includes loans from various international sources, including the World Bank. This borrowing spree has contributed to a significant increase in Nigeria’s public debt, reaching approximately N150 trillion by the first quarter of 2025, up from N121.7 trillion a year earlier. This escalating debt burden has raised concerns about debt sustainability, prompting calls for greater transparency, fiscal discipline, and rigorous oversight.
The President’s depiction of a stable economy also clashes with prevailing economic indicators. Inflation remains stubbornly high at over 20%, the monetary policy rate (MPR) stands at 27.50%, and unemployment, particularly among youth, exceeds 40%. Nigeria’s economy remains heavily reliant on volatile foreign portfolio investments rather than more sustainable foreign direct investments. Several multinational companies, citing the challenging economic environment, have exited the Nigerian market, further undermining the narrative of economic stability. The departure of these companies, including prominent retailers and healthcare giants, highlights the impact of soaring inflation, foreign exchange volatility, rising production costs, and unpredictable government policies on investor confidence.
The President’s optimistic narrative also glosses over the worsening security situation in the country, marked by numerous internally displaced persons (IDP) camps. While the President highlighted increased diaspora remittances as a positive economic indicator, this overlooks the fact that these remittances are partly fueled by the “Japa” phenomenon – the mass exodus of Nigerians seeking better opportunities abroad due to the difficult economic conditions at home.
Experts argue that the President’s claims, rather than reflecting genuine economic progress, appear to be aimed at projecting a positive image, potentially misleading the public and obscuring the true state of the Nigerian economy. The disconnect between the President’s pronouncements and the prevailing economic realities raises concerns about the government’s economic strategy and its transparency in communicating with the public.
Critics argue that the focus should be on addressing the underlying economic challenges, including high inflation, unemployment, and debt burden, rather than presenting a rosy picture that does not align with the lived experiences of many Nigerians. They emphasize the need for data-driven policymaking, transparency, and accountability to foster sustainable economic growth and improve the well-being of the Nigerian people. The government’s economic policies and their impact on various sectors require thorough scrutiny to ensure they are aligned with the long-term goals of economic stability and prosperity. The exodus of businesses, the escalating debt, and the struggles faced by ordinary Nigerians paint a picture far removed from the “stable economy” presented by President Tinubu.
The contrasting narratives presented by the President and the prevailing economic data underscore the importance of independent analysis and critical evaluation of government claims. A more open and honest dialogue about the challenges facing the Nigerian economy is essential for developing effective solutions and building public trust. The focus should be on concrete results and tangible improvements in the lives of Nigerians, rather than on potentially misleading pronouncements that do not reflect the ground realities. The true measure of economic progress lies not in political rhetoric, but in the tangible improvements experienced by the citizens, in their access to jobs, affordable goods, and essential services.