U.S. Braces for Deluge of Foreign Election Interference as Voting Begins
The 2024 U.S. presidential election is facing an unprecedented onslaught of foreign interference, with Russia, China, and Iran leading the charge to manipulate public opinion and sow discord. U.S. intelligence agencies have issued stark warnings, indicating that these adversaries are intensifying their campaigns as Election Day approaches, aiming to influence the outcome and undermine public trust in the democratic process. The threat extends beyond November 5th, with intelligence officials anticipating continued efforts to question the validity of the election results after the polls close.
Russia’s interference efforts, according to U.S. intelligence, continue to focus on bolstering former President Donald Trump’s candidacy while undermining Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign. These actions mirror Russia’s interference in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Meanwhile, Iran’s activities are geared towards supporting Harris by targeting Trump, evidenced by an ongoing hack-and-leak operation attributed to operatives linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. While China has not yet directly interfered in the presidential race, U.S. intelligence agencies report that Beijing is actively working to influence state and local elections, targeting candidates perceived as unfavorable to Chinese interests, particularly those who support Taiwan.
The scope of foreign interference has expanded significantly in this election cycle, with a threefold increase in influence operations targeting specific races and campaigns. This surge has prompted a corresponding increase in private briefings to candidates and campaigns to raise awareness of the threats. Adding another layer of complexity, U.S. adversaries are expected to exploit the damage caused by natural disasters, such as Hurricane Helene and potentially Hurricane Milton, to amplify divisive narratives and further erode confidence in the election outcome.
Beyond the presidential race, foreign interference is also impacting congressional, state, and local elections. Russia and Cuba have joined China in targeting these down-ballot contests. Moscow is deploying a range of influence actors to sway congressional races, particularly those involving candidates with pro-Ukraine stances. Cuba has also reportedly considered influencing specific races, consistent with their past behavior. These actions underscore the broad reach of foreign interference, aiming to manipulate election outcomes across all levels of government.
The methods employed by foreign actors are increasingly sophisticated, making attribution and countermeasures more challenging. They are leveraging a wider array of tactics, including using Americans as unwitting conduits for disinformation, making it appear as though the information is originating domestically. This tactic aims to circumvent skepticism towards overtly foreign propaganda, exploiting the tendency for people to trust information shared by their fellow citizens. Social media platforms are rife with these fabricated personas, amplifying the reach and impact of disinformation. Experts estimate that a significant portion of political content encountered on social media may originate from foreign influence operations.
The U.S. government is taking steps to counter these foreign influence campaigns, including seizing internet domains used for disinformation dissemination and indicting individuals involved in spreading propaganda. However, the evolving tactics employed by foreign actors, particularly the use of Americans as proxies for disinformation, pose a serious challenge. The pervasiveness of these influence operations on social media raises concerns about the integrity of online political discourse and the ability of voters to access accurate information. The potential for further escalation in the 48 hours leading up to and following the election is a major concern, highlighting the need for continued vigilance and public awareness.
