Social Media Disinformation and Offline Violence: A Call for Systematic Tracking
The spread of disinformation on social media platforms has become a potent tool for manipulating public narratives, mobilizing support, and, unfortunately, inciting violence against marginalized groups. This issue brief explores the critical need for systematic tracking and data collection of social media mis/disinformation (SMM) to better understand its connection to offline violence and inform early warning/early action (EW/EA) efforts. Focusing on the U.S. as a case study, this research delves into the methodologies required to effectively monitor online trends and their potential for real-world consequences, particularly in the context of the upcoming 2024 presidential election.
The research, based on interviews with 14 experts in the field of SMM monitoring, reveals two primary approaches for tracking online activity: (1) monitoring narratives to assess longer-term risks of violence and (2) identifying credible threats of immediate violence or mobilization. Narrative tracking focuses on identifying false narratives that promote in-group favoritism and out-group negativity, often by portraying marginalized groups as threats. However, tracking narratives in real-time presents significant challenges due to the sheer volume of online content, the use of coded language and symbols, and the constantly evolving nature of online discourse. Identifying credible threats involves looking for specific calls to action, details about mobilization plans, and the context in which these threats are made. While monitoring public platforms offers insights into broader trends, closed channels often provide more reliable indicators of imminent action.
Experts highlighted several recurring themes and strategies employed in successful SMM campaigns. These include narratives of victimhood, existential threats, and saviorism, often combined with strategies like speculative framing, the use of humor, and the recycling of older narratives. However, they emphasized that the effectiveness of these campaigns hinges not solely on the content but also on how the message is packaged and disseminated by key influencers. The ability of content creators to utilize social media platforms for real-time feedback and adapt their messaging accordingly, borrowing techniques from advertising and communications, makes messaging a crucial element in successful SMM campaigns.
Given the dynamic nature of narratives, the research suggests that focusing on the "nodes of influence" – the individuals and groups propagating the content – may be a more effective approach than tracking the narratives themselves. Key indicators of influence include financial resources, connections to political power, links to other influencers, and the platform used for dissemination. Understanding the relationships between influencers across different platforms and identifying the flow of information from fringe spaces to mainstream outlets can provide valuable early warnings.
Based on these findings, the research proposes several initiatives for improving the understanding of the SMM-violence nexus. In the short term, systematic monitoring of fringe online spaces, like 4chan’s /pol/ board, can offer insights into emerging narratives that may eventually migrate to mainstream platforms. Assessing the reliability of reporting on potential future events by comparing reported events with actual occurrences can improve early warning capabilities. In the medium term, building a network of influencers and tracking their activities across platforms can provide a more targeted approach to monitoring SMM and its potential impact.
The research also highlights several crucial recommendations for improving SMM monitoring and analysis. Researchers need a deeper understanding of historical precedents and the histories of marginalized groups to contextualize emerging narratives. Effective monitoring requires tools and techniques that can analyze various media formats, including visual media and videos. Collaboration and information sharing within the research field are essential to minimize redundancies and maximize resources. Importantly, sustained funding from private foundations and donors is crucial to support this evolving field, particularly during contentious periods like elections.
Social media companies also have a significant role to play. Standardizing data availability and accessibility is vital for researchers to effectively monitor online trends. Improved documentation practices and potential solutions like "digital evidence lockers" can preserve vital information for investigations after content has been removed. Addressing these challenges requires a concerted effort from researchers, funders, and social media platforms alike to effectively monitor and mitigate the harmful effects of online SMM on offline violence and mobilization.
The research concludes that while the scope of the current study focuses primarily on systematic approaches to understanding the online-offline continuum for improved prevention and early warning, other important considerations, including content moderation, regulatory legislation, and the implementation of early action strategies, require further exploration. These additional areas, while critical to a comprehensive approach to tackling SMM-related violence, fall outside the specific methodological focus of this study.
This detailed exploration into the relationship between online SMM and offline violence underscores the urgent need for systematic tracking and analysis. The rapid evolution of the online ecosystem demands continuous adaptation and innovation in monitoring methodologies, focusing on identifying key influencers and their reach across different platforms. By understanding the dynamics of online narratives and their potential to incite violence, researchers, policymakers, and social media companies can work collaboratively to develop more effective strategies for early warning and prevention, ultimately contributing to a safer and more informed society.
