Unmasking Disinformation: A €250,000 Project to Combat Information Manipulation
The digital age has ushered in an era of unprecedented information access, but also an alarming rise in disinformation campaigns, often orchestrated by state and non-state actors seeking to manipulate public opinion and undermine democratic processes. Professor Martin Innes, Co-Director of the Security, Crime and Intelligence Innovation Institute at Cardiff University, has secured €250,000 in funding from Horizon Europe to tackle this critical challenge. The three-year project, Attribution Data Analysis Countermeasures Interoperability (ADAC), will delve into the intricate world of Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI), commonly known as disinformation, to develop effective countermeasures.
FIMI poses a significant threat to political stability and security worldwide. The European External Action Service (EEAS) defines FIMI as a deliberate and coordinated pattern of manipulative behavior designed to negatively impact values, political processes, and procedures. Perpetrators can be state or non-state actors operating within or outside their territories, employing sophisticated tactics to spread misleading narratives and influence public discourse. The ADAC project, led by Lund University in Sweden and involving partners in Lithuania, Poland, and Cardiff University, will focus on improving technical standards for detecting, categorizing, analyzing, and countering FIMI, with a specific emphasis on attribution impact, linguistic and visual analysis, cross-platform manipulation, and gendered disinformation.
Professor Innes highlights the urgency of the issue, citing the growing public and political concern surrounding disinformation and information disorders. The 2016 US presidential election, marred by the interference of the St. Petersburg-based Internet Research Agency, brought the issue to the forefront. Since then, significant research efforts have been undertaken to understand the causes and consequences of disinformation. However, Professor Innes argues that while considerable attention has been paid to identifying perpetrators, less focus has been placed on evaluating the effectiveness of countermeasures. The ADAC project aims to address this gap by developing an evidence-based approach to combating disinformation.
The far-reaching impacts of disinformation are evident in various domains, including public health, elections, climate change, and conflict resolution. Professor Innes emphasizes the pervasive nature of disinformation campaigns, noting that nearly every major public controversy or high-profile event becomes a target for manipulative communication. The COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the conflict in Gaza are prime examples of events exploited by disinformation actors. In 2024, with numerous elections taking place globally, concerns are heightened regarding the potential for malicious actors to use disinformation tactics to influence electoral outcomes. Professor Innes’s previous research, involving the identification of foreign state-backed interference in the UK and US elections, underscores the growing sophistication and power of these tools and techniques.
The ADAC project builds upon the extensive expertise and evidence accumulated by Cardiff University’s research team, who have been at the forefront of studying information manipulation campaigns. Leveraging this knowledge, the project will tackle critical questions surrounding the development of more effective countermeasures. Professor Innes emphasizes the importance of collaboration, highlighting the project’s partnership with Lund University and other European institutions. These collaborations provide valuable opportunities to share knowledge, insights, and experiences in addressing this complex challenge.
One of the key objectives of the ADAC project is to address the lack of rigorous evidence underpinning current understandings and responses to disinformation. Professor Innes points out that many widely held assumptions about effective countermeasures lack empirical support. For example, the practice of attributing responsibility for disinformation campaigns, particularly when foreign state involvement is suspected, is a common tactic, but its effectiveness remains unclear. The ADAC project seeks to answer crucial questions about the impact of attribution, such as whether the source of the attribution (government agencies, social media platforms, or independent researchers) affects public perception.
Combating disinformation requires a multi-faceted approach. While numerous strategies are currently being implemented, their effectiveness remains largely unknown. Professor Innes cites a previous study that demonstrated how "de-platforming" some social media accounts spreading disinformation actually resulted in increased followers, highlighting the potential for unintended consequences. Research plays a crucial role in identifying and mitigating such counterproductive effects. The ADAC project aims to provide evidence-based insights to inform the development of more effective and targeted countermeasures.
The Security, Crime and Intelligence Innovation Institute at Cardiff University, where Professor Innes is Co-Director, focuses on interdisciplinary research to understand and address emerging security threats arising from technological advancements and data proliferation. The Institute adopts a challenge-led approach, emphasizing a global civic mission and the importance of impactful research. Its research programs cover a wide range of topics, including crime, violence, policing, and the impact of artificial intelligence on defense and security. The Institute also plays a key role in building research capacity at the university by fostering skills development, forging partnerships, and developing the necessary infrastructure to support sustained research in this area.
Finally, Professor Innes emphasizes the importance of international collaboration in addressing global security challenges. He highlights the UK government’s association with Horizon Europe as a crucial step in enabling such collaborations. Recognizing the increasing uncertainty, instability, and insecurity of the current global landscape, he stresses the need for collaborative efforts to tackle "wicked problems" that defy simple solutions. Working with European and international partners allows for the sharing of knowledge, experiences, and insights, leading to more effective research outcomes and a consolidated response to the growing threat of disinformation.