AI-Powered Disinformation Looms Over 2025 Canadian Federal Election
Canada’s Communications Security Establishment (CSE) has issued a stark warning about the potential for foreign interference in the upcoming 2025 federal election, anticipated this spring. The agency’s report, "Cyber Threats to Canada’s Democratic Process: 2025 Update," highlights the growing threat posed by state-sponsored actors leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to manipulate public opinion, disseminate disinformation, and undermine democratic processes. CSE specifically identifies China, Russia, and Iran as nations “very likely” to deploy AI-driven tactics to interfere with the election. These malicious activities could range from sophisticated phishing campaigns targeting political figures to the widespread dissemination of deepfakes and other fabricated content designed to sow discord and influence voter perceptions.
The report underscores the accessibility and increasing sophistication of AI tools, including generative AI models capable of creating realistic deepfake videos, audio recordings, and images, as well as generating text and computer code. These technologies, once requiring significant technical expertise and financial resources, are now readily available and user-friendly, lowering the barrier to entry for malicious actors. CSE warns that this increased accessibility, coupled with a lack of robust regulations and safeguards, has created a fertile ground for foreign interference. The agency expresses particular concern about the potential for deepfakes to be used to discredit politicians, spread false narratives, and manipulate public discourse.
CSE outlines the likely objectives of these foreign interference campaigns. China, Russia, and Iran are assessed as “almost certainly” aiming to weaken alliances between democratic nations, exacerbate existing divisions within and between these countries, and advance their own geopolitical agendas. These actors employ AI-powered tools to flood the information environment with disinformation, often utilizing botnets—networks of compromised computers—to amplify the reach of their malicious content. The report highlights the vulnerability of Canadian public figures, especially women and members of the 2SLGBTQI+ community, to targeted harassment and intimidation through the creation and dissemination of deepfake pornography. The CSE emphasizes the need for updated legal and regulatory frameworks to combat this insidious form of online abuse and protect individuals’ right to participate in the political process without fear of reprisal.
While the report details a range of potential threats, it also offers some reassurance. CSE judges that it is "very unlikely" that AI-enabled activities will fundamentally undermine the integrity of the upcoming election. This assessment likely stems from Canada’s reliance on paper ballots, which provides a tangible record of votes cast, making large-scale manipulation more difficult. However, the agency acknowledges that other aspects of Canada’s electoral infrastructure, such as voter registration systems, election websites, and communication channels between election management bodies, are digitized and therefore vulnerable to cyberattacks. These systems could be targeted by malicious actors seeking to disrupt electoral processes, compromise the confidentiality of sensitive data, or undermine public trust in the integrity of the election.
The CSE report emphasizes the distinct approaches employed by different foreign actors in their interference efforts. Russia’s disinformation campaigns, for instance, often rely on the amplification of their narratives by domestic actors, whether witting or unwitting. The report cites the example of a 2024 deepfake campaign targeting a US political figure, which gained traction only after being amplified by right-wing commentators. China, on the other hand, is more likely to use AI-driven interference to promote narratives favorable to its interests and spread disinformation among specific target audiences, including Canadian diaspora communities. These narratives often aim to bolster China’s claims on Taiwan, downplay human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, and silence dissent against Beijing’s policies.
The report’s release serves as a crucial call to action for Canadian authorities, political parties, and the public. It highlights the urgent need for increased vigilance, improved cybersecurity measures, and public awareness campaigns to counter the threat of foreign interference in the 2025 election. The CSE’s assessment emphasizes the evolving nature of these threats and the critical role of AI in shaping the future of disinformation and political manipulation. It underscores the importance of a multi-faceted approach to safeguarding Canada’s democratic processes, including strengthening cybersecurity defenses, promoting media literacy, and fostering international cooperation to address this global challenge to democratic integrity.
