Azerbaijan’s Delicate Balancing Act Amidst Iran-Israel Tensions
The recent military flare-up between Iran and Israel sent ripples of tension throughout the Middle East and beyond, impacting neighboring countries and sensitive border regions. Azerbaijan, due to its unique geopolitical position, found itself in a particularly precarious situation. Sharing a border and maintaining a regional partnership with Iran, while simultaneously fostering close diplomatic, economic, and military ties with Israel, Azerbaijan faced a complex challenge navigating the escalating conflict. The situation became even more sensitive when certain political actors sought to exploit this complexity by propagating unfounded accusations against Azerbaijan, alleging its complicity in Israeli strikes against Iran. These claims, however, lacked any credible military or technical substantiation. While official Iranian diplomatic channels maintained a relatively measured stance, some internal factions within Iran framed the conflict as a simplistic binary opposition between Iran and Israel, misrepresenting Azerbaijan’s neutral position.
The allegations against Azerbaijan raise a crucial question: why would Azerbaijan jeopardize its relationship with Iran, a neighboring country, by facilitating such actions? Historically, Azerbaijan has consistently refrained from allowing third-party states to utilize its territory for military operations against other nations. Furthermore, Baku has consistently prioritized the security of its borders and the stability of its neighbors, recognizing the disproportionate impact of regional instability on smaller nations. The potential for a massive influx of refugees from a destabilized Iran, a nation of over 90 million people, presents a significant concern for Azerbaijan.
Beyond security and economic considerations, the relationship between Azerbaijan and Iran is deeply rooted in millennia of shared history and culture. These intertwined cultural connections often blur the distinctions between the two societies. Mammad Amin Rasulzadeh, a prominent Azerbaijani intellectual, eloquently captured this interconnectedness by observing that while Azerbaijan’s oral literature is predominantly Turkic, its written literature is largely Persian. This shared heritage extends beyond culture, encompassing religious and political spheres. The historical precedent of Persian kings seeking divine blessings in Atropatene (present-day Iranian Azerbaijan) underscores the intertwining of their histories. The fact that the current Supreme Leader of Iran is of Azerbaijani descent further symbolizes the continuity of this historical and spiritual link.
Iran’s rich civilizational legacy, spanning over two millennia, has been significantly shaped by Azerbaijani contributions. From the Khwarazmian dynasty to the early 20th century, Azerbaijani elites played pivotal roles in Iranian governance. The Safavid dynasty, founded by Azerbaijanis, not only propagated Shiism but also unified the Iranian state under a shared religious-political identity, demonstrating an early form of soft power. Despite these deep historical connections, the Azerbaijan-Iran relationship over the past three decades has experienced both periods of cooperation and tension. During the initial stages of the Karabakh conflict, Iran offered support to Azerbaijan, including the arrival of Afghan fighters, visits from Iranian generals to Baku, and Iranian forces striking Armenian positions to ensure the safe passage of Azerbaijani civilians from Zangilan.
However, Iran’s subsequent shift in policy towards Armenia and its pursuit of expansionist policies, including interference in Azerbaijani affairs, raise questions about the reasons behind this change in stance. This shift can be attributed to internal contradictions within Iran. While both Iran and Azerbaijan are inheritors of a shared civilization, ultra-nationalist and chauvinist factions within Iran resist acknowledging Azerbaijan’s rightful place within this heritage. These factions often scapegoat Azerbaijan for Iran’s internal challenges, including military setbacks, security breaches, and diplomatic difficulties.
This tendency to blame Azerbaijan resurfaced during the recent Iran-Israel conflict, with fringe Iranian media outlets attempting to implicate Azerbaijan by alleging that Israeli drones and aircraft launched attacks on Iran from Azerbaijani territory. These claims lack any factual basis. Several factors discredit these allegations. Firstly, the disinformation campaign originated in Russian media at a time of strained relations between Moscow and Baku, suggesting a potential geopolitical motivation. The timing of the allegations, surfacing well after the hostilities had ceased, also raises suspicions. Secondly, Azerbaijan’s historical and societal structure makes it ill-equipped to handle large-scale refugee influxes. The experience of 1987-1990, when over half a million displaced persons arrived from Uzbekistan, Armenia, and Georgia, and the subsequent five changes of government between 1987 and 1993, highlight the destabilizing effect of demographic pressures. A renewed conflict in Iran, home to over 30 million ethnic Azerbaijanis and numerous other minorities, could trigger a refugee crisis of unprecedented proportions for Azerbaijan. Thirdly, the recent visit of Iran’s President to Khankendi and his cordial discussions with President Ilham Aliyev contradict the notion that Iran genuinely believed Azerbaijan had abetted Israeli military actions. Finally, and most crucially, Israel’s advanced drone and missile systems, produced by leading defense companies, are well-documented and readily trackable via satellite. Any aircraft movements of this nature would be easily detected, particularly in a region under constant surveillance. Military analysts emphasize that Israel’s arsenal of UAVs possesses the range and capabilities for long-range operations without requiring access to Azerbaijani airspace. Specialized observation and reconnaissance drones are particularly suited for such missions due to their lightweight design, fuel efficiency, and extended flight endurance.
The recent conflict also underscored the evolving nature of modern warfare. Israel’s strikes employed not only remote aerial assets but also embedded networks within Iran, highlighting a shift towards hybrid warfare, where proxy agents and covert operations are as crucial as conventional weaponry. Iran’s own law enforcement agencies have confirmed these developments, releasing footage of drone workshops and weapons caches within Iranian territory, leading to numerous arrests and even capital sentences. This evidence points to internal security breaches rather than external aggression. From military, diplomatic, and cultural perspectives, the Iran-Israel conflict has had a destabilizing impact on both the Middle East and the South Caucasus. For Azerbaijan, the possibility of a nuclear-armed confrontation in close proximity is deeply concerning, particularly given the presence of over 50 million ethnic kin within Iran, adding an emotional dimension to national security calculations. Ultimately, this crisis reinforces the principle that war benefits no one. De-escalation and diplomatic engagement are the only viable paths forward. By promoting regional stability and economic integration, countries like Azerbaijan can enhance their resilience against the turbulence of geopolitical rivalries.
